http://www.lorientlejour.com/article/815649/israel-pret-a-attaquer-en-cas-de-chute-du-regime-assad.html
Israël prêt à attaquer en cas de chute du régime Assad...
23/05/2013
Israël est prêt à attaquer la Syrie, en cas de chute du président Bachar
el-Assad, pour empêcher que des armes perfectionnées ne tombent entre
les mains de groupes jihadistes ou du Hezbollah, a déclaré hier le chef
de l’armée de l’air israélienne. « Dans l’hypothèse où Israël devrait
affronter le Hezbollah et ses soutiens iraniens, a ajouté le général
Amir Eshel, il faut s’attendre à un conflit long et douloureux. Nous
devons être prêts à affronter tous les scénarios, avec seulement
quelques heures de préavis. » Des avions israéliens ont attaqué des
objectifs en Syrie au moins trois fois cette année pour détruire, selon
des sources proches des services de renseignements, des armes
antiaériennes et des missiles sol-sol destinés aux miliciens chiites du
Hezbollah. Par ailleurs, un haut responsable du ministère israélien de
la Défense a assuré hier que la « stabilité » sur le plateau du Golan
occupé et la « force de dissuasion de l’armée israélienne » dans le
secteur sont intactes malgré la multiplication récente des tirs syriens.
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Syrian Rebels in Trouble: German Intelligence Sees Assad Regaining Hold
Matthias Gebauer
Germany's foreign intelligence agency, the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), has fundamentally changed its view of the ongoing civil war in Syria.
SPIEGEL ONLINE has learned that the BND now believes the Syrian
military of autocrat Bashar Assad is more stable than it has been in a
long time and is capable of undertaking successful operations against
rebel units at will. BND head Gerhard Schindler informed select
politicians of the agency's new assessment in a secret meeting.
It is a notable about-face. As recently as last summer, Schindler
reported to government officials and parliamentarians that he felt the
Assad regime would collapse early in 2013. He repeated the view in
interviews with the media.
At the time, the BND pointed to the Syrian military's precarious
supply situation and large numbers of desertions that included members
of the officer core. German intelligence spoke of the "end phase of the
regime."
Since then, however, the situation has changed dramatically, the BND
believes. Schindler used graphics and maps to demonstrate that Assad's
troops once again possess effective supply lines to ensure sufficient
quantities of weapons and other materiel. Fuel supplies for tanks and
military aircraft, which had proved troublesome, are once again
available, Schindler reported. The new situation allows Assad's troops
to combat spontaneous rebel attacks and even retake positions that were
previously lost. The BND does not believe that Assad's military is
strong enough to defeat the rebels, but it can do enough to improve its
position in the current stalemate.
Severing Rebel Supply Lines
The assessment appears to be consistent with recent reports from
Syria, where government troops have been able to regain the upper hand
in the region stretching from Damascus to Homs, including coastal areas
near Homs. Furthermore, fighters loyal to Assad have expelled rebel
fighters from several districts on the edge of Damascus and cut off
their supply lines to the south. Currently, the regime is in the process
of severing rebel supply lines to the west.
Meanwhile, the BND believes that rebel forces, which include several
groups of Islamist fighters with ties to al-Qaida, are facing extreme
difficulties. Schindler reported that different rebel groups are
fighting with each other to attain supremacy in individual regions.
Furthermore, regime troops have managed to cut supply lines for weapons
and evacuation routes for wounded fighters. Each new battle weakens the
militias further, the BND chief said.
Should the conflict continue as it has in recent weeks, says
Schindler, government troops could retake the entire southern half of
the country by the end of 2013. That would leave only the north for
insurgent fighters, where Kurdish rebels have tighten control over their
areas.
Lowering Expectations
Schindler's report on the state of the rebel groups allows little room
for hope that serious talks between the insurgents and the Assad regime
will take place soon. The BND says there is no functional chain of
command between opposition leaders abroad and the militias inside of
Syria. The fighters on the ground simply don't recognize the political
leadership, says the BND.
The United Nations is currently doing all it can to encourage both
sides to engage in peace talks in Geneva, though no date has been set. German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle is once again travelling to the Middle East on Wednesday to plan for such negotiations.
At a meeting of the "Friends of Syria" in the Jordanian capital of Amman, Westerwelle is set to meet with US Secretary of State John Kerry
among others. But over the weekend, he sought to lower expectations,
saying that it isn't clear yet whether the Assad regime is even prepared
to engage in talks.
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Assad preparing missile strike against Tel Aviv in case attacked again
The Syrian army is deploying advanced surface-to-surface missiles aiming at Israel in the aftermath of the alleged Israeli strikes, The Sunday Times reports.
May.19, 2013
Syria
is making preparations to strike Tel Aviv in case Israel launches
another attack on its territory, The Sunday Times reported on Sunday.
The
Syrian army has begun deploying advanced surface-to-surface missiles,
the report said, adding that it has received orders to strike central
Israel in case additional attacks against Syria are carried out.
The
Sunday Times said that the information was obtained by reconnaissance
satellites that were tracking the Syrian forces. According to the
report, Syria was deploying advanced Tishreen missiles which are capable
of carrying a half-ton warhead.
...
On Wednesday, The New York Times quoted a senior Israeli official warning of further attacks against Syria in case Bashar Assad
decides to take action against Israel. The official also said Israel is
determined to prevent any transfer of advanced weapons to Hezbollah.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said that Syria would supply his organization with 'game-changing weapons'
in response to recent air raids near Damascus attributed to Israel.
Another recent report claimed that Iran convinced Assad to allow
Hezbollah to open a front against Israel in the Golan Heights, and also
agreed to supply and assist any group that wishes to fight Israel.
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