Global Temperature Trends From 2500 B.C. To 2040 A.D.
Until recently, global temperatures were more than a degree Fahrenheit warmer when compared to the overall 20th Century mean. From August of 2007 through February of 2008, the Earth's mean reading dropped to near the 200-year average temperature of 57 degrees. (See Long-Term Chart Below.)
We, Cliff Harris and Randy Mann, believe that the warming and even the cooling of global temperatures are the result of long-term climatic cycles, solar activity, sea-surface temperature patterns and more. However, Mankind's activities of the burning of fossil fuels, massive deforestations, the replacing of grassy surfaces with asphalt and concrete, the 'Urban Heat Island Effect,' are making conditions 'worse' and this will ultimately enhance the Earth's warming process down the meteorological roadway in the next several decades.
From the late 1940s through the early 1970s, a climate research organization called the Weather Science Foundation of Crystal Lake, Illinois, determined that the planet's warm, cold, wet and dry periods were the result of alternating short-term and long-term climatic cycles. These researchers and scientists also concluded that the Earth's ever-changing climate likewise has influenced global and regional economies, human and animal migrations, science, religion and the arts as well as shifting forms of government and strength of leadership.
Much of this data was based upon thousands of hours of research done by Dr. Raymond H. Wheeler and his associates during the 1930s and 1940s at the University of Kansas. Dr. Wheeler was well-known for his discovery of various climate cycles, including his highly-regarded '510-Year Drought Clock' that he detailed at the end of the 'Dust Bowl' era in the late 1930s.
During the early 1970s, our planet was in the midst of a colder and drier weather cycle. Inflationary recessions and oil shortages led to rationing and long gas lines at service stations worldwide. The situation at that time was far worse than it is now, at least for the time being.
The Weather Science Foundation also predicted, based on these various climate cycles, that our planet would turn much warmer and wetter by the early 2000s, resulting in general global prosperity. They also said that we would be seeing at this time widespread weather 'extremes.' There's little doubt that most of their early predictions came true.
Our recent decline in the Earth's temperature may be a combination of both long-term and short-term climate cycles, decreased solar activity and the development of a strong long-lasting La Nina, the current cooler than normal sea-surface temperature event in the south-central Pacific Ocean. Sunspot activity in the past 18 months has decreased to the lowest levels since 'The Little Ice Age' ended in the mid-to late 1800s. This "cool spell," though, may only be a brief interruption to the Earth's overall warming trend. Only time will tell.
Based on these predictions, it appears that much warmer readings may be expected for Planet Earth, especially by the 2030s, that will eventually top 1998's global highest reading of 58.3 degrees. It's quite possible we could see an average temperature in the low 60s. Until then, this 'cooling period' may last from just a few months to as long as several years, especially if sunspot activity remains very low.
We at Harris-Mann Climatology, www.LongRangeWeather.com, believe that our prolonged cycle of wide weather 'extremes,' the worst in at least 1,000 years, will continue and perhaps become even more severe, especially by the mid 2010s. We should see more powerful storms, including major hurricanes and increasing deadly tornadoes. There will likewise be widespread flooding, crop-destroying droughts and freezes and violent weather of all types including ice storms, large-sized hail and torrential downpours.
We are already seeing on virtually every continent an almost Biblical weather scenario of increasing droughts and floods. In both the southwestern and southeastern corners of the U.S, there are severe water shortage problems associated with chronic long-term dryness. In some cases, the water deficits are the worst in at least 400 years.
Dr. Wheeler also discovered that approximately every 102 years, a much warmer and drier climatic cycle affects our planet. The last such 'warm and dry' peak occurred in 1936, at the end of the infamous 'Dust Bowl' period. During that time, extreme heat and dryness, combined with a multitude of problems during the 'Great Depression,' made living conditions practically intolerable.
The next 'warm and dry' climatic phase is scheduled to arrive in the early 2030s, probably peaking around 2038. It is expected to produce even hotter and drier weather patterns than we saw during the late 1990s and early 2000s.
But, we should remember, that the Earth's coldest periods have usually followed excessive warmth. Such was the case when our planet moved from the Medieval Warm Period between 900 and 1300 A.D. to the sudden 'Little Ice Age,' which peaked in the 17th Century.
By the end of this 21st Century, a big cool down may occur that could ultimately lead to expanding glaciers worldwide, even in the mid-latitudes. We could possibly see even a new Great Ice Age. Based on long-term climatic data, these major ice ages have recurred about every 11,500 years. Well, you guessed it. The last extensive ice age was approximately 11,500 years ago, so we may be due. Again, only time will tell.
Global temperature chart was complied by Climatologist Cliff Harris that combined the following resources:
"Climate and the Affairs of Men" by Dr. Iben Browing.
"Climate...The Key to Understanding Business Cycles...The Raymond H. Wheeler Papers. By Michael Zahorchak
Weather Science Foundation Papers in Crystal Lake, Illinois.
About Long Range Weather and Harris-Mann Climatology
Cliff Harris of Harris-Mann ClimatologyClimatologist Cliff Harris has been often rated as one of the top ten climatologists in the world for nearly 4 decades. Cliff Harris' long-range weather forecasts have been used by high-ranking government officials and quoted in USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, The Wall Street Digest, Farm Journal, Top Producer, Successful Farming, Futures Magazine, The Boston Globe and many other publications. He also provides several weekly local and national radio weather broadcasts to various stations throughout the country. As one of the partners of Harris-Mann Climatology, Cliff provides daily weather updates to hundreds of subscribers through DTN, Farm Dayta, the Internet and various local media. His weather and commodity forecasting success rate is approximately 75% and he accurately predicted the current prolonged cycle of global weather "extremes" in 1966. Since age 11, he has compiled nearly 100 weather
scrapbooks that detail major events throughout the U.S. and the world on a daily basis. Cliff operates a weather station in Coeur d'Alene, Idaho and writes a popular weekly column called 'Gems' for the Coeur d'Alene Press. He has been quoted in CNN and "Not by FIRE, but by ICE" by Robert W. Felix. Cliff and his wife Sharon have been married for 43 years and have 2 children, 3 grandchildren and 2 toy poodles.
Randy Mann of Harris-Mann ClimatologyMeteorologist Randy Mann has been recognized by the American Meteorological Society since 1988. As a partner of Harris-Mann Climatology, he provides some of the daily weather information, computer graphics and maintenance for the company. Randy has also had an extensive background in television and radio weather production, and has provided on-air television weather forecasts to KCPQ in Tacoma, Washington; KCRA-TV in Sacramento, California, WPTZ-NewsChannel 5 and was Chief Meteorologist for WVNY Channel 22 and WEZF Radio in the Burlington/Plattsburgh area. He currently provides on-air weather forecasts for KREM-2 in Spokane, Washington and is currently the Chief Meteorologist for the Coeur d'Alene Press weather page. He also writes a weekly weather column for the Valley Edition of the Spokesman Review. In the past decade, Randy has also designed other weather-related publications that include two North Idaho weather
calendars, the International Traveler's Weather Guide, Tom Loffman's Sacramento Weather Guide, the Vermont Town and Weather Almanac (7 Editions), the award-winning 1997 Frederick County Weather Almanac and the 1998, 1999, Year 2000 and the 2001 Frederick County Weather Almanacs. He has been married to his wife Sally for over 15 years.