iceland volcano: uk met office data unreliable

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http://www.voltairenet.org/article165055.html

related post: vulcano islandese : misure esagerate

useful link: http://www.flightradar24.com/

20 avril 2010

Zone occidentale de l’OTAN : fermeture du ciel aux avions civils durant les exercices militaires

[Réseau Voltaire] Deux F-18 finlandais auraient été endommagés le jeudi 15 avril 2010 en traversant la zone de dispersion des cendres du volcan Eyjafjöll. Tandis qu’un F-16 belge, participant aux manoeuvres Brilliant Ardent 2010 de l’OTAN aurait été endommagé lundi 19 avril , indique Associated Press

Alors que le trafic aérien civil a été progressivement interrompu sur la partie européenne de la zone OTAN depuis la soirée du mercredi 14 avril, une soixantaine d’avions de l’Alliance participe à une vaste opération de tests de nouvelles armes tactiques. L’Allemagne, les Etats-Unis, la France, l’Italie, la Pologne, le Royaume-Uni, la Tchéquie et la Turquie sont les principaux Etats impliqués dans l’exercice qui se poursuivra jusqu’au jeudi 22 avril, précise l’US Air Force.

Selon l’Organisation de l’aviation civile internationale (OACI), les cendres volcaniques de l’Eyjafjöll peuvent gravement détériorer les réacteurs des avions.

Cependant, l’OACI se fonde sur les données transmise par le Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VACC), un organe du Met Office britannique. Contrairement à ses équivalents comme Météo France, le Met Office ne dépend pas du ministère des Transports (aujourd’hui absorbé au sein du Ministère de l’Écologie, de l’Énergie, du Développement durable et de la Mer), mais du ministère de la Défense.

Le VACC formule ses recommandations notamment au vu des données fournies par les satellites militaires britanniques.

Le secrétaire général de l’Alliance, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, a déclaré : « Je peux vous assurer que le volcan islandais n’a aucun effet sur nos opérations, ni sur la défense territoriale des Etats alliés ». Pourtant les constructeurs soulignent que les réacteurs des avions de chasse aux normes OTAN sont plus fragiles que ceux des avions civils et ne sont pas certifiés contre les cendres volcaniques.

Toutefois les avions sanitaires des forces US en Afghanistan et en Irak, qui font habituellement un pont aérien vers leur hôpital militaire à Stutgart (Allemagne) ont été déroutés vers le Maryland (Etats-Unis).

Selon Arkady Tishkov, directeur du département géographique de l’Académie russe des sciences, et selon le commandant Oleg Smirnov, directeur de la Fondation de l’aviation civile russe, les mesures prises dans la zone OTAN sont inappropriées et sur-dimensionnées. Le président Medvedev, qui n’accorde aucun sérieux aux mises en garde du Met Office, a été le seul chef d’Etat à se rendre par avion aux obsèques du président polonais, le 18 avril.

La Russie n’a fermé aucun de ses aéroports bien que, selon le Met Office, la moitié de son territoire soit couverte par le nuage de cendres. Cependant, l’aéroport de l’enclave russe de Kalilingrad a été fermé parce que les espaces aériens mitoyens (Pologne et Lituanie) ont été fermés.

A partir du samedi 17, plusieurs compagnies d’aviation ouest-européennes ont bénéficié de dérogations pour conduire leurs propres tests et ont conclu à l’absence de danger (Lufthansa, Air Berlin, KLM, Air France…). Elles ont dénoncé une mesure précipitée de fermeture de l’espace aérien civil.

Ainsi, Joachim Hunold, pdg d’Air Berlin a déclaré au Bild am Sonntag : « Pas une seule sonde météo n’a été lancée en Allemagne pour mesurer si et dans quelles proportions il y a des cendres volcaniques dans l’air. La fermeture de l’espace aérien est entièrement basée sur les résultats de simulations par ordinateur du Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) ».

Ce que confirment les experts indépendants. Guido Visconti, directeur du Centre des phénomènes extrêmes à l’Université de l’Aquila a indiqué au Corriere della Sera : « Les valeurs mesurées en France, Allemagne, Pays-Bas, Suisse et Roumanie sont égales ou inférieures a celles des standards acceptés pour la pollution urbaine, même en ce qui concerne le dioxide de soufre ».

Les mesures prises après l’explosion du petit volcan islandais sont sans précédent dans l’histoire de l’aviation civile. Plus de 300 aéroports ont été fermés, plus de 60 000 vols ont été annulés au détriment de plus de 6 millions de passagers. Ces perturbations pourraient provoquer la faillite de plusieurs compagnies aériennes ouest-européennes, laissant leurs parts de marché à leurs rivales états-uniennes.

Des compagnies ont accusé le commissaire européen Siim Kallas d’avoir tardé à réunir le conseil des ministres des Transports de l’Union européenne pour examiner la pertinence des mesures prises. Ancien Premier ministre estonien (libertarien), M. Kallas est l’architecte de l’entrée de son pays dans l’OTAN. Le conseil n’a examiné que lundi 19 les contradictions entre les avis du Met Office et les tests des compagnies aériennes.

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/7608722/Volcanic-ash-cloud-Met-Office-blamed-for-unnecessary-six-day-closure.html

Volcanic ash cloud: Met Office blamed for unnecessary six-day closure

The Met Office has been blamed for triggering the “unnecessary” six-day closure of British airspace which has cost airlines, passengers and the economy more than £1.5 billion.

Caroline Gammell, David Millward and Bruno Waterfield
19 Apr 2010

The government agency was accused of using a scientific model based on “probability” rather than fact to forecast the spread of the volcanic ash cloud that made Europe a no-fly zone and ruined the plans of more than 2.5 million travellers in and out of Britain.

A senior European official said there was no clear scientific evidence behind the model, which air traffic control services used to justify the unprecedented shutdown.

Eleven major British airlines joined forces last night to publicly criticise Nats, the air traffic control centre, over the way it interpreted the Met Office’s “very limited empirical data”.

Legal experts suggested passengers and airlines may be able to sue the Government for more than £1?billion in compensation. Flights in and out of Britain are scheduled to resume today for the first time in almost a week after Lord Adonis, the Transport Secretary, said there had been a “dramatic decrease” in the volcano’s activity.

Airports in Scotland and the north of England will be the first to open, followed by those in the Midlands and then in the south of England by 6pm.

However, it has been estimated that the travel backlog could take up to a fortnight to clear.

British airspace was shut for the first time in history last Thursday amid fears that the volcanic ash from Iceland could get sucked into jet engines and cause them to malfunction.

The announcement last night that restrictions would be eased was accompanied by arguments over whether the shutdown had been an over-reaction.

Much of the blame was directed at the Met Office’s Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC). It provided the initial warning, which triggered the European-wide ban via Eurocontrol, the air traffic control centre in Brussels.

Matthias Ruete, the European Commission’s director-general of transport, said air traffic authorities should not have relied on a single source of scientific evidence before imposing the widespread ban. He suggested the no-fly zone should have been restricted to a 20 to 30-mile limit around the volcano. “The science behind the model we are running at the moment is based on certain assumptions where we do not have clear scientific evidence,” he said.

“We don’t even know what density the cloud should be in order to affect jet engines. We have a model that runs on mathematical projections. It is probability rather than actual things happening.”

Mr Ruete said the commission had to intervene to allow airlines to make test flights in order to check the VAAC data “to help us move on from the mathematical model”.

Of the 40 test flights across Europe, including a British Airways flight on Sunday, none found any evidence of ash in jet engines, windows or lubrication systems.

In a joint letter to Lord Adonis, the 11 British airlines said the official response to the volcanic eruption presented “a clear case for government compensation”.

Jeff Zindani, of Forum Law solicitors, said: “Legal analysis suggests that there may be a raft of class actions brought by airlines and companies that are dependent on air travel to move their goods.

“This may well open the way for wider litigation against the Met Office and other government agencies who are found to have failed in their duty of care. The damages and legal costs could break the £1?billion mark.”

Andy Harrison, the chief executive of easyJet, said the cost could run into “hundreds of millions of pounds”.

The International Air Transport Association (Iata), the airline industry trade body, also criticised the decision to close airspace based on theoretical modelling of the ash cloud.

“These decisions have been taken without adequately consulting the airlines. This is not an acceptable system particularly when the consequences for safety and the economy are so large,” said Giovanni Bisignani, the organisation’s director general.

He said the £1?billion cost to the aviation industry could be attributed to lost revenue, repatriation, refunds and the cost of supporting stranded passengers. The cost to the wider British economy has been estimated at £500? million.

British Airways announced it planned to begin flying from London from 4pm after Willie Walsh, its chief executive, said the blanket ban had been “unnecessary”. Virgin Atlantic said it hoped to operate flights from London from 7pm.

Mr Walsh was one of the 11 signatories of the letter to Lord Adonis. It said: “We remain concerned that the approach taken by Nats has been too sweeping.” Warning of “long-term damage” to the industry, it added: “We believe that the nature of this natural disaster presents a clear case for government compensation. The closure of airspace is an uninsurable event and thus not a risk that airlines can reasonably be expected to bear.”

David Greene, the head of litigation at Edwin Coe, said legal action was more likely to be successful if taken by a large group of tourists and companies in a class action.

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/travelnews/7607216/Iceland-volcano-air-restrictions-are-excessive-says-European-Commission.html

Iceland volcano air restrictions are excessive, says European Commission

Europe should reduce its volcanic ash flight ban to “several dozen kilometres” around Iceland and rethink the Met Office science behind the current no fly restrictions, said a senior European Commission official today.

Bruno Waterfield, in Brussels and Andrew Hough
19 Apr 2010

As forecasters warned the cloud from the Iceland volcano could prevent flights over Britain all week, criticism has been growing over the system that means only 30 per cent of scheduled European flights will operate today.

The unprecedented disruption to airline passengers has already cost the British economy £500 million and is costing airlines worldwide £130 million a day.

Matthias Ruete, the Commission’s director general of transport, criticised national air traffic authorities for relying on a single source of scientific evidence for the four day ban, which has created a major aviation crisis.

“The science behind the model we are running at the moment is based on certain assumptions where we do not have clear scientific evidence,” he said.

“We don’t even know what density the cloud should be in order to affect jet engines. We have a model that runs on mathematical projections.”

“It is probability rather than actual things happening.”

The Met Office’s London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) provided the volcanic ash warning last week, triggering the European ban, via Eurocontrol, the Brussels based air traffic control centre.

Mr Ruete revealed that the Commission was forced yesterday to intervene with national authorities to “unblock the mess” and to allow airlines to fly test flights to check the VAAC data.

“In a case where, we do not have the data it is a tremendous and terrible responsibility for the authorities to say, ‘oh well go on up’. That is why test flights are so important to have some kind of empirical evidence to help us move on from the mathematical model,” he said.

He said that 40 test flights across Europe, including one by British Airways, had found no evidence of ash in jet engines, windows or lubrication systems that could pick up the dangerous volcanic particles.

“There was no trace of ash at all,” he said.

The Commission will support an option restricting the flight ban to the immediate vicinity of Iceland at an emergency videoconference of EU transport ministers this afternoon.

In the long term, Mr Ruete signalled that Europe should move to a United States style system for dealing with volcanic ash. He said that America was used to dealing with volcanoes and allowed airlines to decide whether to fly based on scientific evidence.

Under the European system, national and European authorities are compelled to act on the VAAC’s advice, even if it is limited to mathematical modelling.

“If you had the situation across the Atlantic, the advice would probably be ‘don’t fly over the volcano otherwise it’s up to you,” he said.

“The US model is not less safe, you just have to look at the statistics.”

Giovanni Bisignani, director-general, the International Air Transport Association, was equally scathing about the response to the ash cloud.

"This is a European embarrassment and it's a European mess,” he told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme.

"This decision (to close airspace) has to be based on facts and supported by risk assessment. We need to replace this blanket approach with a practical approach."

Seeking to deflect criticism that the Government had been slow to act, Gordon Brown announced that three Royal Navy ships would help return strangled British travellers from the continent.

Describing the situation as a "European problem" requiring a "European solution", the Prime Minister noted that “the safety of air passengers is of paramount importance”.

After a meeting of Cobra, the Government's emergency planning committee in Whitehall, the Prime Minister announced that HMS Ark Royal and HMS Ocean were being made available to help thousands of Britons stranded, most notably in France.

The Spanish government on Monday said its airports would be used to get 70,000 stranded Britons home around the ash cloud that has paralysed European air traffic.

The chaos caused by the eruption of an Icelandic volcano, now entering its fifth day, has left more than one million British travellers stranded abroad.

The cloud of ash is expected to reach the eastern Canadian coast on Monday night and may not dissipate until Saturday.

Air traffic controllers have extended a ban on flights over Britain until 1am Tuesday at the earliest.

However, travellers received mixed messages about the likely duration of the disruption. While forecasters predicted winds would carry on blowing the volcanic dust across Europe, observers said activity in the crater appeared to be weakening.

And despite a number of test flights by airlines that encountered no problems, Nato reported finding residue of the ash in the engines of one of its fighter jets.