Tuesday, 9 June 2020

united against the invisible enemy of all humanity

 https://www.neweurope.eu/article/solve-et-coagula/

 Covid social engineering / deep state / orchestrated media narrative / Invisible Enemy

 Solve et Coagula

 June 7, 2020

From Nunzio Apostolico representing Pope Benedict in the United States, Cardinal Carlo Maria Viganò was transferred to the to the Diocese of Ulpiana (Pristina Kosovo) after he publicized a 7,000 word letter asking for the resignation of Pope Francis, accusing him of covering up sexual abuse and giving comfort to a “homosexual current” in the Vatican.
Today, from Pristina, he wrote the following open letter to US President Donald Trump.


June 7, 2020 Holy Trinity Sunday
Mr. President,

In recent months we have been witnessing the formation of two opposing sides that I would call Biblical: the children of light and the children of darkness. The children of light constitute the most conspicuous part of humanity, while the children of darkness represent an absolute minority. And yet the former are the object of a sort of discrimination which places them in a situation of moral inferiority with respect to their adversaries, who often hold strategic positions in government, in politics, in the economy and in the media. In an apparently inexplicable way, the good are held hostage by the wicked and by those who help them either out of self-interest or fearfulness.
These two sides, which have a Biblical nature, follow the clear separation between the offspring of the Woman and the offspring of the Serpent. On the one hand there are those who, although they have a thousand defects and weaknesses, are motivated by the desire to do good, to be honest, to raise a family, to engage in work, to give prosperity to their homeland, to help the needy, and, in obedience to the Law of God, to merit the Kingdom of Heaven. On the other hand, there are those who serve themselves, who do not hold any moral principles, who want to demolish the family and the nation, exploit workers to make themselves unduly wealthy, foment internal divisions and wars, and accumulate power and money: for them the fallacious illusion of temporal well-being will one day – if they do not repent – yield to the terrible fate that awaits them, far from God, in eternal damnation.
In society, Mr. President, these two opposing realities co-exist as eternal enemies, just as God and Satan are eternal enemies. And it appears that the children of darkness – whom we may easily identify with the deep state which you wisely oppose and which is fiercely waging war against you in these days – have decided to show their cards, so to speak, by now revealing their plans. They seem to be so certain of already having everything under control that they have laid aside that circumspection that until now had at least partially concealed their true intentions. The investigations already under way will reveal the true responsibility of those who managed the Covid emergency not only in the area of health care but also in politics, the economy, and the media. We will probably find that in this colossal operation of social engineering there are people who have decided the fate of humanity, arrogating to themselves the right to act against the will of citizens and their representatives in the governments of nations.
We will also discover that the riots in these days were provoked by those who, seeing that the virus is inevitably fading and that the social alarm of the pandemic is waning, necessarily have had to provoke civil disturbances, because they would be followed by repression which, although legitimate, could be condemned as an unjustified aggression against the population. The same thing is also happening in Europe, in perfect synchrony. It is quite clear that the use of street protests is instrumental to the purposes of those who would like to see someone elected in the upcoming presidential elections who embodies the goals of the deep state and who expresses those goals faithfully and with conviction. It will not be surprising if, in a few months, we learn once again that hidden behind these acts of vandalism and violence there are those who hope to profit from the dissolution of the social order so as to build a world without freedom: Solve et Coagula, as the Masonic adage teaches.
Although it may seem disconcerting, the opposing alignments I have described are also found in religious circles. There are faithful Shepherds who care for the flock of Christ, but there are also mercenary infidels who seek to scatter the flock and hand the sheep over to be devoured by ravenous wolves. It is not surprising that these mercenaries are allies of the children of darkness and hate the children of light: just as there is a deep state, there is also a deep church that betrays its duties and forswears its proper commitments before God. Thus the Invisible Enemy, whom good rulers fight against in public affairs, is also fought against by good shepherds in the ecclesiastical sphere. It is a spiritual battle, which I spoke about in my recent Appeal which was published on May 8.
For the first time, the United States has in you a President who courageously defends the right to life, who is not ashamed to denounce the persecution of Christians throughout the world, who speaks of Jesus Christ and the right of citizens to freedom of worship. Your participation in the March for Life, and more recently your proclamation of the month of April as National Child Abuse Prevention Month, are actions that confirm which side you wish to fight on. And I dare to believe that both of us are on the same side in this battle, albeit with different weapons.
For this reason, I believe that the attack to which you were subjected after your visit to the National Shrine of Saint John Paul II is part of the orchestrated media narrative which seeks not to fight racism and bring social order, but to aggravate dispositions; not to bring justice, but to legitimize violence and crime; not to serve the truth, but to favor one political faction. And it is disconcerting that there are Bishops – such as those whom I recently denounced – who, by their words, prove that they are aligned on the opposing side. They are subservient to the deep state, to globalism, to aligned thought, to the New World Order which they invoke ever more frequently in the name of a universal brotherhood which has nothing Christian about it, but which evokes the Masonic ideals of those want to dominate the world by driving God out of the courts, out of schools, out of families, and perhaps even out of churches.
The American people are mature and have now understood how much the mainstream media does not want to spread the truth but seeks to silence and distort it, spreading the lie that is useful for the purposes of their masters. However, it is important that the good – who are the majority – wake up from their sluggishness and do not accept being deceived by a minority of dishonest people with unavowable purposes. It is necessary that the good, the children of light, come together and make their voices heard. What more effective way is there to do this, Mr. President, than by prayer, asking the Lord to protect you, the United States, and all of humanity from this enormous attack of the Enemy? Before the power of prayer, the deceptions of the children of darkness will collapse, their plots will be revealed, their betrayal will be shown, their frightening power will end in nothing, brought to light and exposed for what it is: an infernal deception.
Mr. President, my prayer is constantly turned to the beloved American nation, where I had the privilege and honor of being sent by Pope Benedict XVI as Apostolic Nuncio. In this dramatic and decisive hour for all of humanity, I am praying for you and also for all those who are at your side in the government of the United States. I trust that the American people are united with me and you in prayer to Almighty God.
United against the Invisible Enemy of all humanity, I bless you and the First Lady, the beloved American nation, and all men and women of good will.

Titular Archbishop of Ulpiana

Former Apostolic Nuncio to the United States of America





Thursday, 3 July 2014

syria: bbc says uk planned to train 100,000 rebels

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http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-28148943

UK planned to train and equip 100,000 rebels 

Nick Hopkins, 3 July 2014

The UK drew up plans to train and equip a 100,000-strong Syrian rebel army to defeat President Bashar al-Assad, BBC Newsnight can reveal.  The secret initiative, put forward two years ago, was the brainchild of the then most senior UK military officer, General Sir David Richards.  It was considered by the PM and the National Security Council, as well as US officials, but was deemed too risky.  The UK government did not respond to a request for comment.  Lord Richards, as he is now, believed his proposal could stem the civilian bloodshed in Syria as rebels fought troops loyal to Mr Assad.  The idea was considered by David Cameron and Dominic Grieve, the attorney general, and sent to the National Security Council, Whitehall sources said.

It was also put to senior figures in Washington, including General Martin Dempsey, the US's most senior military officer.  While it was thought to be too radical at the time, US President Barack Obama said last week he was seeking $500m (£291m) funding to train Syrian rebels - an echo of Lord Richards' plan.  Insiders have told BBC Newsnight that Lord Richards, then chief of the defence staff but since retired from the military, warned Downing Street there were only two ways to end the Syrian civil war quickly - to let President Assad win, or to defeat him. 

'Extract, equip, train'

With ministers having pledged not to commit British "boots on the ground", his initiative proposed vetting and training a substantial army of moderate Syrian rebels at bases in Turkey and Jordan.  Mr Cameron was told the "extract, equip, train" plan would involve an international coalition.  It would take a year, but this would buy time for an alternative Syrian government to be formed in exile, the PM was told.

Once the Syrian force was ready, it would march on Damascus, with the cover of fighter jets from the West and Gulf allies.  The plan envisaged a "shock and awe" campaign, similar to the one that routed Saddam's military in 2003, but spearheaded by Syrians. 

'Chemical weapons' 

Though the plan was put to one side at the time, Mr Cameron was later persuaded to consider military action when evidence emerged of chemical weapons use in Syria.  However, MPs voted against giving authority for a direct intervention last August.  The US and UK accused the Assad government of being behind the attacks, but Damascus blamed rebel groups.

 (...)


 
 

Wednesday, 25 June 2014

france: le systeme centralise, clienteliste et corporatiste a vecu

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http://www.lefigaro.fr/vox/politique/2014/06/20/31001-20140620ARTFIG00224-france-les-scenarios-de-la-catastrophe.php#auteur

France : les scénarios de la catastrophe

FIGAROVOX/GRAND ENTRETIEN - La France est-elle une cocotte-minute sur le point d'exploser. C'est ce que pense l'essayiste Serge Federbusch. Dans Français, prêts pour votre prochaine révolution ?, il décrit les trois scénarios de notre avenir proche. Deux sont catastrophiques. Le pire, c'est que c'est crédible!

20/06/2014
Propos recueillis par Guillaume Perrault

Ancien élève de l'Ecole nationale d'administration, Serge Federbusch est magistrat administratif. Il a travaillé pour le ministère des finances, le quai d'Orsay et la ville de Paris. Président du Parti des Libertés, ancien élu du Xe arrondissement de Paris, Serge Federbusch anime Delanopolis, site d'information satirique consacrée à la vie politique dans la capitale.
Français, prêts pour votre prochaine révolution? , est publié chez Ixelles éditions (271 p., 17,90€).

LE FIGARO: en quoi la France de 2014 vous paraît présenter des analogies avec les cas d'effondrement par désagrégation interne que la France a connus?
 
Les analogies sont nombreuses. Le déficit et la dette publics représentent à peu près les mêmes masses financières, par rapport à la richesse du pays, qu'en 1788. La crise budgétaire est ouverte et rien ne semble pouvoir l'enrayer. Le gouvernement a perdu sa souveraineté, son autonomie, en matière de politique monétaire et financière. En 1788, on subissait encore la conséquence de la banqueroute de Law, près de 70 ans plus tôt. Calonne, qui s'était essayé à manipuler le titrage en or des louis et ducats, avait été accusé de fraude, presque de crime contre le bien public. De nos jours, l'Etat est dépendant des décisions de Bruxelles et de la Banque centrale européenne. Hier comme aujourd'hui, la perte de crédit et de prestige du souverain et de son gouvernement sont considérables. L'affaire du collier de la reine avait beaucoup miné l'autorité royale. Quantité de libellistes écrivaient sous le manteau des textes d'une hostilité farouche au roi et à la reine. De même, aujourd'hui, nombre de blogueurs critiquent le pouvoir. Les journalistes ne sont plus ni écoutés ni respectés, mais au contraire pris à partie. La frustration générale de l'opinion, la montée du chômage, la stagnation du pouvoir d'achat par habitant depuis bientôt dix ans se constatent aux deux époques. Comme en 1788, le pouvoir n'est plus obéi ni respecté. La paralysie de l'Etat s'aggrave de mois en mois. Il n'est même plus capable de régler une question aussi secondaire que celle des portiques écotaxe. Le système centralisé, clientéliste et corporatiste a vécu, en 2014 comme en 1788. Reste à savoir d'où viendra l'étincelle. Je pense que ce sera la crise de l'euro ou une dissolution ratée, ou encore les deux à la fois, qui rendront le pays ingouvernable.

La France, écrivez-vous, a «cherché à tirer parti des avantages de la 3e révolution industrielle (…) sans en payer le prix»: en quoi?
 
Depuis plus de trente ans, les Français sont atteints de schizophrénie. Comme consommateurs, ils bénéficient de la baisse du prix de nombreux biens et services grâce à ce qu'on nomme «mondialisation». Comme producteurs, nombre d'entre eux ont vu leurs emplois disparaître ou leurs salaires stagner du fait de la concurrence internationale. Jusqu'à présent, la France a plus ou moins réussi à avoir le beurre et l'argent du beurre. Le développement de l'emploi public et de la dette a permis à une large majorité de la population de bénéficier de cette situation davantage qu'elle n'en souffrait. Mais aujourd'hui, il faudrait commencer à rembourser. Et le système ne tient que parce que les prêteurs pensent que, derrière la France, il y a la discipline germanique qui nous protège. Mais c'est un baril de poudre près d'un brasier.

Vous n'êtes pas tendre pour la haute fonction publique, vous qui avez fait l'Ena…
 
La France souffre d'une boursouflure du système politico-administratif français dans ses rapports avec les corporations. Le noyau du système dirigeant est une sorte de duopole qui comprend élus à vie et hauts fonctionnaires. Ils s'appuient sur une administration dilatée et gouvernent par des accords avec les corporations et les cadres des grandes entreprises. Mais les dirigeants de ces deux dernières sont plus solidement installés que les politiciens, ce qui finit par fragiliser l'Etat. On retrouve ici un trait commun à tous les régimes français depuis plus de deux siècles: il est difficile de concilier gouvernement centralisé, régime économique libéral et parlementarisme de circonscriptions. S'y substitue donc un dialogue direct entre pouvoir exécutif et corporations qui finit par être paralysant car il n'existe pas d'arbitre légitime à leurs inévitables désaccords. C'est ce qui explique, au fond, les déboires actuels de Hollande qui affronte le stade terminal de cette évolution délétère.

Bruxelles: bouc émissaire de nos difficultés ou vrai coupable?
 
Les deux, forcément! L'Etat s'est servi du prétexte européen pour tenter de résister à certaines pressions corporatistes et a trouvé des subventions allemandes repeintes aux couleurs de l'Europe pour faciliter les délicates mutations du monde rural français. Par la suite, le marché financier européen a permis d'obtenir des financements plus abondants et de s'endetter à moindre coût. Mais le prix à payer était la monnaie unique. Sinon les marchés auraient continué à attaquer le franc, la peseta et le lire en faisant monter le mark. Aujourd'hui, l'euro agit comme un noeud coulant autour de l'économie française. Toute réforme de structure «vertueuse» est rendue vaine par la montée du taux de change de l'euro qu'elle entraîne. En effet, les marchés en espèrent un redressement budgétaire dans la zone euro, qui contraste avec la situation américaine, anglaise ou japonaise. Nous sommes entrés dans l'euro avec un taux de change du franc surévalué. Les Allemands, qui d'ailleurs jouent des délocalisations en Europe de l'Est pour améliorer leur compétitivité, ont pu dès le départ accroître la productivité de leur industrie. Depuis plus de dix ans, ils progressent surtout aux dépens des économies sud européennes, notamment celle de la France. Cette situation est perverse et sans issue.

Vous imaginez trois scénarios pour l'avenir proche. Le premier: Hollande est un nouveau Louis XVI. Que pourrait-il se passer?
 
C'est un scénario tout à fait plausible. Face à l'échec quasi assuré des mesures de redressement budgétaire, entre autre en raison de la persistance d'un euro surévalué qui déprime l'activité, Hollande, tôt ou tard, sera sommé de mettre en oeuvre de vraies mesures d'austérité. Il ne le voudra ni ne le pourra car un nombre croissant de députés socialistes préfèreront «tomber à gauche», comme on disait sous la Quatrième République. Du reste, Hollande se dira que sa seule chance d'être réélu est une cohabitation. Comme le niveau atteint par le Front national conduira à de nombreuses triangulaires, la victoire de l'UMP sera étriquée. Si la droite est maligne d'ailleurs, elle refusera de constituer un gouvernement tant qu'Hollande n'aura pas démissionné. Bref, on sera en pleine crise de régime avec un budget en capilotade. Rien ne s'opposera plus à une remontée des taux d'intérêt et une spirale de troubles politiques, économiques et sociaux. Les prétextes à une explosion ne manqueront pas: regardez déjà du côté de la SNCF, des banlieues ou des intermittents.

Rêvons un peu: un de Gaulle se présente. Quelle feuille de route lui donnez-vous?
 
Terminer ce qui a été commencé en 1958 et 1962 avec les moyens nouveaux dont dispose la démocratie. S'appuyer sur un recours régulier au référendum, diminuer drastiquement le nombre d'élus et surtout empêcher que quelqu'un vive toute sa vie de politique. Réformer la chose publique pour réduire le poids de l'Etat, libéraliser au maximum le fonctionnement de l'économie et, dans l'immédiat, taper du poing sur la table pour que l'euro se déprécie d'au moins 40 % faute de quoi tout ceci ne sera pas possible. Si nos partenaires refusent, il faudra quitter l'euro, quelle qu'en soit la difficulté. C'est une question de survie. Ou alors, préparez-vous à la guerre civile: je ne pense pas que Marine Le Pen soit en mesure de faire face à cette situation avec un programme inspiré de celui du parti communiste des années 1970 et alors qu'une part très importante de la population est prête à l'affronter durement.

Le scénario catastrophe: un régime autoritaire, fût-il éclairé, à savoir un nouveau Napoléon III. En quoi cette hypothèse n'est pas à exclure?
 
La nature politique a horreur du vide. Il faut bien que la société fonctionne et les esprits me semblent d'ailleurs, aujourd'hui, étrangement en attente d'une reprise en main ferme par le pouvoir. Ce n'est pas étranger au succès qu'avait connu Sarkozy en 2007. La France est restée frustrée de ce candidat dont le mandat semble avoir bifurqué, un quart d'heure et cinquante mètres de marche après son élection, d'une procession gaullienne sur les Champs Elysées à un pot entre amis au Fouquet's.

Friday, 7 March 2014

giulietto chiesa: si deve vendere l'italia

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http://www.ilsussidiario.net/News/Politica/2014/3/5/RETROSCENA-Giulietto-Chiesa-Renzi-lo-hanno-voluto-gli-Usa-per-vendere-l-Italia/475958/

RETROSCENA/ Giulietto Chiesa: Renzi lo hanno voluto gli Usa per vendere l'Italia  

5 marzo 2014


Intervista a Giulietto Chiesa

"È tutto spettacolo". Così Giulietto Chiesa, giornalista e politico storicamente di sinistra, commenta l'operazione Renzi, spinto a Palazzo Chigi dalla mano degli States per rispondere agli interessi di Wall Street e per amicarsi Italia, preziosa pedina, nello scacchiere che vede contrapposti gli Usa alla Germania della Merkel. "Io credo che Renzi sia la persona più adatta per fare una politica filoamericana. D’altronde lo ha rivelato lui stesso quando si è paragonato a Tony Blair, che è stato un servo degli Stati Uniti" continua Chiesa.

Dietro l’ascesa di Matteo Renzi a Palazzo Chigi non c’è solo De Benedetti. Pare che una spinta importante sia arrivata anche dagli States, direttamente dalla Casa Bianca…

Io credo che Renzi sia la persona più adatta per fare una politica filoamericana. D’altronde lo ha rivelato lui stesso, senza esitazioni, quando si è paragonato a Tony Blair, che è stato un servo degli Stati Uniti: se lo vuole imitare vuol dire che ha questa intenzione. Del resto il personaggio, per come si presenta, punta molto in alto e siccome i padroni universali stanno là, dalle parti di Wall Street, immagino che voglia puntare proprio verso quella direzione. È dunque facile capire perché Obama è ben felice che Renzi sia al potere (e che possibilmente vi rimanga).

Prima c’era Letta che è sempre stato etichettato come l’uomo delle banche; a un certo punto non è più andato bene. Perché?

Enrico Letta era un uomo della vecchia guardia. Bisogna fare attenzione ai particolari: Letta, a differenza di Obama, è andato a Sochi. Queste cose, per chi ha il comando, sono molto interessanti; si misurano tra di loro con i dettagli. Letta ha fatto un errore a partecipare alle Olimpiadi invernali in Russia: ma come? Cosa ci è andato a fare? Non si devono fare queste cose... Renzi non ci sarebbe mai andato, ecco la differenza. Da queste piccole cose si possono capire le preferenze dei padroni del vapore, che un tempo erano più duttili e civili e adesso, invece, stanno diventando sempre più prepotenti, pretendendo servitori molto più fedeli.

Renzi, come uomo "scelto" dagli Stati Uniti, va collocato nel puzzle dello scontro politico economico Germania-Usa? Obama, più volte, ha criticato la linea Merkel…

Io penso che lo scontro Germania-Stati Uniti sia in corso da tempo ed entrambi i Paesi fanno i propri rispettivi interessi. Siccome la Germania è molto forte in Europa, se io fossi al posto di Obama cercherei di accerchiarla, togliendole ogni aiutante di campo, isolandola. È un’operazione, ripeto, in corso da tempo. Per esempio...

Prego.

La guerra di Libia è stato un episodio in cui i grandi alleati americani, Francia e Gran Bretagna, si sono messi in campo, mentre la Merkel non è andata in Libia a combattere al fianco degli Usa e della Nato. Il terzo protagonista europeo – di un certo peso economico e storico – è l'Italia. Conquistare pienamente l'Italia in una visione esclusivamente atlantica è una mossa che può avere un grande significato per il futuro. E io credo che a Washington stiano pensando proprio a questo.

Dunque Renzi come pedina fondamentale in questo scacchiere di rapporti di forza?

Io non ho un solo documento a sostegno di questa tesi – sono cose che rimangono all’interno di colloqui segretissimi –, ma la mia impressione generale è che se Enrico Letta fosse uguale a Renzi non lo avrebbero certo cambiato; lo hanno fatto perché Renzi è molto più filo-americano.

Dovrà dare qualcosa in cambio?

È al potere con tutti i vantaggi del caso. Lo scambio è: "tu stai al potere e noi facciamo quello che vogliamo fare". In questi casi non è mai questione di gratitudine: quanto dai, tanto avrai…

Qualche settimana fa il Financial Times e il Wall Street Journal hanno speso belle parole per Renzi. Ultimamente il fondo (americano) Blackstone ha acquistato partecipazioni in Versace e Intesa San Paolo e il magnate (americano) George Soros il 5% di Immobiliare grande distribuzione. È un caso?

Mi sembra che, appunto, siano tutti elementi che vadano in questa direzione. I grandi proprietari universali – come li chiama Luciano Gallino – si consultano, si parlano e si danno segnali. Ecco, questi sono tutti segnali in questo senso: maggiore simpatia e sicurezza verso un governo (meno tedesco e più americano) che dà garanzie più precise e complete.

Quello degli Stati Uniti potrebbe essere una sorta di nuovo "Piano Marshall"?

Ma qui non c'è alcuna politica di investimenti a difesa della libertà. Adesso si devono fare le privatizzazioni, a questo starà pensando il nostro premier. Si deve vendere l'Italia: questo è il progetto. I grossi pescecani della finanza aspettano proprio questo. A dire il vero, lo aveva detto anche Letta, ma siamo al discorso di prima: ci sono quelli che eseguono gli ordini senza tirare le briglie e chi – poco gradito – le tira. Semmai...

Dica.

L’unico Piano Marshall possibile in questo momento sarebbe cambiare le regole della finanza internazionale: mettere fuori legge gli off-shore, congelare per i prossimi 50 anni un'ingente massa di derivati e così via. Insomma, tutta una serie di medicine – inevitabili e inesorabili – che naturalmente modificherebbero il quadro degli equilibri finanziari a svantaggio di Wall Street, motivo per il quale non si faranno mai.

Cosa si farà invece?

All’ordine del giorno, ribadisco, ci sono le immediate privatizzazioni di quasi tutto il patrimonio industriale (e anche immobiliare e artistico-culturale) italiano: è questo che ci dobbiamo aspettare secondo la strategia dei 50 miliardi del Fiscal Compact. Gli orizzonti sono questi. Renzi è qui per eseguire i compiti che furono assegnati a Mario Monti.

È un bene o un male per l’Italia?

Se ci si riferisce alla finanza internazionale è un bene, ma se ci si riferisce alla condizione umana e materiale del popolo italiano è un male. Non può essere un fatto positivo, la gente si aspetta tutt'altro. Naturalmente molti non hanno ancora capito, perché le dinamiche mediatiche con le quali si promuovono queste operazioni convincono milioni di persone che questo sia un uomo nuovo, giovane e affascinante che mette otto donne del governo. Figuriamoci...

Il suo giudizio è dunque negativo.

È tutto uno spettacolo, e la gente, che non ne conosce le regole, ci casca. Poi piange, a danno fatto. Nell'immediato Renzi prenderà un sacco di voti, tutti dovuti alla speranza disperata della gente di cavarsela. Una volta per svelare gli altarini ci volevano 5 o 6 anni, oggi in molto meno tempo: fra un anno saremo già lì a fare i conti. L’accelerazione della crisi rende il tutto molto trasparente...

Fabio Franchini

Thursday, 13 February 2014

italia: e ora legalizzare la cannabis

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http://ilmanifesto.it/una-sentenza-stupefacente/
http://www.radicali.it/rassegna-stampa/una-sentenza-stupefacente

Una sentenza stupefacente

Eleonora Martini,
12.2.2014


La Consulta boccia la Fini-Giovanardi: incostituzionale. Illegittima la conversione parlamentare del decreto sulle Olimpiadi di Torino. «E ora legalizzare la cannabis» Lo chiedono i Radicali mentre il Pd apre a una vera riforma della legislazione sulle sostanze

  Inco­sti­tu­zio­nale. La legge Fini-Giovanardi è stata spaz­zata via dalla Con­sulta e non, come avrebbe dovuto essere, dalla poli­tica, dopo otto anni di pene abnormi che nes­suno potrà ripa­gare. Otto anni di sof­fe­renze per migliaia di per­sone entrate nel cir­cuito penale e san­zio­na­to­rio, recluse, morte per­fino, a causa del furore ideo­lo­gico delle destre e dell’ignavia del cen­tro­si­ni­stra (solo il mini­stro Paolo Fer­rero, con l’ultimo governo Prodi, tentò inu­til­mente di can­cel­larla), e a tutto bene­fi­cio dei nar­co­traf­fi­canti. La Corte costi­tu­zio­nale ieri ha dichia­rato ille­git­tima la legge 49/2006 «per vio­la­zione dell’art. 77, secondo comma, della Costi­tu­zione, che regola la pro­ce­dura di con­ver­sione dei decreti-legge». Un qua­dro nor­ma­tivo che, come ha già ricor­dato il mani­fe­sto in que­sti giorni, venne intro­dotto for­za­ta­mente — ricor­rendo al voto di fidu­cia — durante l’iter par­la­men­tare di con­ver­sione del decreto sulle Olim­piadi inver­nali di Torino con gli arti­coli 4–bis e 4–vicies ter, dichia­rati inco­sti­tu­zio­nali ieri dagli ermel­lini, e che riscrisse com­ple­ta­mente gli arti­coli 73, 13 e 14 del Testo unico sugli stu­pe­fa­centi, il dpr 309/90. Per entrare nei det­ta­gli biso­gnerà atten­dere le moti­va­zioni della Corte che saranno scritte dal giu­dice rela­tore Marta Car­ta­bia, ma è chiaro fin d’ora che l’equiparazione delle sostanze leg­gere a quelle pesanti, poste in un’unica tabella nella Fini-Giovanardi, e delle con­dotte — la deten­zione per uso per­so­nale assi­mi­lata allo spac­cio – sono ormai carta strac­cia. Per­ché torna a rivi­vere la pre-esistente nor­ma­tiva, la Jervolino-Vassalli emen­data dal refe­ren­dum pro­mosso dai Radi­cali nella pri­ma­vera del 1993, secondo la quale non è puni­bile la deten­zione a scopo di uso per­so­nale, qual­siasi sia il quan­ti­ta­tivo (venne abo­lita la «dose media gior­na­liera» che era la soglia per la con­fi­gu­ra­zione del reato di spac­cio) e per qual­siasi sostanza.  La col­ti­va­zione di mari­juana però resta ancora un reato puni­bile con san­zioni penali ele­vate, per­ché anche per la Jervolino-Vassalli viene equi­pa­rata allo spac­cio. Le pene però sono ridotte da 2 a 6 anni di car­cere (per la Fini-Giovanardi erano da 6 a 22), men­tre per il traf­fico di cocaina, eroina o dro­ghe sin­te­ti­che sono pre­vi­sti dagli 8 ai 20 anni di reclu­sione. Ora si spera che la dif­fe­ren­zia­zione dei reati e delle pene fac­cia tor­nare rapi­da­mente ad un mer­cato sepa­rato tra sostanze leg­gere e pesanti, come era prima del feb­braio 2006. Anche se in Par­la­mento giac­ciono già alcuni dise­gni di legge — in par­ti­co­lare quello del depu­tato di Sel, Daniele Farina, che pre­vede la depe­na­liz­za­zione delle dro­ghe leg­gere, giunto in com­mis­sione Giu­sti­zia — la segre­ta­ria dei Radi­cali ita­liani, Rita Ber­nar­dini, sol­le­cita la lega­liz­za­zione della can­na­bis. «Per quanto mi riguarda, da plu­ri­pre­giu­di­cata come Pan­nella e altri radi­cali, con­ti­nuerò a disob­be­dire fino a che i malati e i con­su­ma­tori saranno costretti dalla legge a rifor­nirsi al mer­cato cri­mi­nale», aggiunge Ber­nar­dini che si è auto denun­ciata a Fog­gia per la col­ti­va­zione di alcune piante di mari­juana senza però aver otte­nuto l’arresto. D’altronde, se Mat­teo Renzi man­tiene la parola — «Lega­liz­zare l’erba? Prima via la Fini-Giovanardi», aveva detto poco più di un mese fa — i tempi sono maturi. Nel Pd, per esem­pio, in molti hanno chie­sto ad Enrico Letta di giu­sti­fi­care la scelta di schie­rare l’avvocatura dello Stato davanti alla Con­sulta a difesa della legge più car­ce­ro­gena di que­sti tempi.  Basti pen­sare infatti che circa il 40% dei dete­nuti, 24.273 per­sone al 31 dicem­bre 2013 sono in car­cere per vio­la­zione della legge inco­sti­tu­zio­nale. Men­tre 8.657 sono in custo­dia cau­te­lare e 59 inter­nate, come risulta dalla rela­zione al Par­la­mento della mini­stra di Giu­sti­zia, Anna­ma­ria Can­cel­lieri. Numeri più o meno sta­bili dal 2007 in poi: secondo i dati del Dap, il picco di dete­nuti per reati legati agli arti­coli 73 e 74 della legge si è avuto nel 2011, con 27.459 reclusi. Anti­gone però stima che attual­mente i car­ce­rati per deten­zione per­so­nale di dro­ghe leg­gere siano circa 10 mila.  Cosa suc­ce­derà a que­sto eser­cito di per­sone? Secondo alcuni giu­ri­sti, come l’avvocato Michele Pas­sione dell’Osservatorio car­cere dell’Unione delle Camere penali ita­liane, non c’è nes­sun auto­ma­ti­smo nell’esecuzione della sen­tenza della Con­sulta, ma i con­dan­nati in vio­la­zione della legge Fini-Giovanardi potreb­bero chie­dere il rical­colo della pena con la nor­ma­tiva pre esi­stente. Non la pensa così l’avvocato Gio­vanni Maria Flick (vedi inter­vi­sta in que­ste pagine). Un lavoro che rica­drebbe sulle spalle dei giu­dici dell’esecuzione, senza dover ricor­rere a un nuovo dibat­ti­mento, ma che comun­que inta­se­rebbe ulte­rior­mente i tri­bu­nali. Ecco per­ché i Radi­cali — e non solo — tor­nano a chie­dere l’amnistia e l’indulto, «ora neces­sari più che mai».




Droga: Pannella, "Renzi? Ha fatto come il Pci con il divorzio..."

(AGI) Roma, 12 feb. 

"Noi Radicali abbiamo raccolto le firme per abrogare con un referendum la legge Fini-Giovanardi, su cui ora e' intervenuta la Corte costituzionale, che pero' ha sollevato soprattutto questioni che non riguardano il merito della normativa". Marco Pannella mette i puntini sulle i e rimprovera "il 'Grande Renzi'" che "invece, ostentatamente, non ha firmato i nostri referendum che avremmo potuto vincere, affermando che e' il Parlamento a dover decidere". E all'attuale segretario Pd tocca questa reprimenda: "Proprio come fece il Pci all'epoca del referendum sul divorzio, perche' per il Pci il referendum era una jattura". Sempre dai microfoni di Radio Radicale, intervistato sulla sentenza con cui la Corte Costituzionale ha bocciato la legge Fini-Giovanardi sulla droga, Pannella ricorda, inoltre, che "tra le firme raccolte dai Radicali sugli ultimi quesiti referendari c'e' stata, invece, anche quella di Silvio Berlusconi". "Nel 1993, quando vinse il nostro referendum sulla legge Jervolino-Vassalli, su cui avevamo raccolto le firme grazie al Coordinamento radicale antiproibizionista, si espressero a favore di un appello per il 'si'' anche personalita' della Lega come Calderoli, per non parlare di esponenti del Partito liberale come Alfredo Biondi e Paolo Battistuzzi. Ora che ci si interroga sulla eventuale 'staffetta' tra Letta e Renzi - e' la considerazione dello storico leader Radicale - c'e' davvero qualcuno in grado di dire quali siano le differenze tra visioni e obiettivi? Come ha detto giustamente il presidente Napolitano, e' il Pd che deve decidere, ma la verita' e' che il confronto e' sul nulla".



Governo: Pannella, direzione Pd e' stata un disastro

Roma, 13 feb. (Adnkronos)

"L'andamento della direzione del Pd costituisce la prova di un disastro: non c'è nulla di quello che, nell'esercizio di supremo garante del diritto e dei diritti nel nostro Paese, il presidente della Repubblica ha indicato non come doveri ma obblighi rispetto ai quali non c'è un solo giorno da perdere". Lo ha detto Marco Pannella a Radio Radicale. "Non c'è in tutto il dibattito un solo accenno a questo, al fatto che il nostro stato è da decenni considerato dalle istanze democratiche internazionali e dalla giurisdizione - ha proseguito Pannella - uno stato tecnicamente in flagranza criminale rispetto a tutto il diritto positivo contemporaneo e della Costituzione italiana".  "E' un disastro (...) c'è un requiem che va registrato, quello che ha recitato il grande maieuta fiorentino, il compagno Matteo Renzi che ha rifiutato la firma ai dodici referendum civili, democratici, dei quali Berlusconi aveva pubblicamente dichiarato, salvo poi il suo partito fotterlo anche lui", conclude Pannella.



Domani (...) presenteremo formale incriminazione dello stato italiano per violazione di tutti i diritti positivi teoricamente vigenti , da quelli internazionale, a quello europeo a quello nazionale”. Lo ha detto questa sera a Radio Radicale Marco Pannella

Sunday, 26 January 2014

shulamit aloni 1928 - 2014

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http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/25/world/middleeast/shulamit-aloni-outspoken-israeli-lawmaker-dies-at-86.html

Shulamit Aloni, Outspoken Israeli Lawmaker, Dies at 86

JODI RUDOREN
JAN 24, 2014

Shulamit Aloni, a longtime left-wing Israeli minister and Parliament member who was an early champion of civil liberties, challenger of religious hegemony and outspoken opponent of Israel’s occupation of the Palestinian territories, died Friday at her home in Kfar Shmaryahu, a Tel Aviv suburb. She was 86.
One of her sons, Nimrod, said she had not been seriously ill, “just very old.”
Mrs. Aloni, an elected lawmaker for 28 years, was the author of six books, including one of Israel’s earliest texts on civics. She was awarded the prestigious Israel Prize in 2000 “for her struggle to right injustices and for raising the standard of equality.”
In 2008, at age 80, she published  “Israel: Democracy or Ethnocracy?” a harsh assessment of her homeland. She wrote on the cover, “The state is returning to the ghetto, to Orthodox Judaism, and the rule of the fundamentalist rabbinate is becoming more profound.”

Reuven Rivlin, a Parliament member from the conservative Likud Party, described Mrs. Aloni on Friday as “the last politician in her generation who said what she thought.” But her outspokenness also made for problems.


Shulamit Aloni, then education minister, talking to students in 1992. David Rubinger/Time Life Pictures, via Getty Images
In 1992, Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin rebuked her for questioning the biblical version of Creation and speaking in the same breath of the Hebrew matriarch Rachel and the prostitute Rahav. The next year, after Mrs. Aloni’s challenging of religious political leaders provoked a coalition crisis, Rabin demoted her from education minister to minister of communications and science and technology.
After Baruch Goldstein massacred 29 Muslims at the Tomb of the Patriarchs in 1994, she was among the first to call for the expulsion of hundreds of Jewish settlers from the West Bank city of Hebron. She also said that high school trips to Holocaust sites were turning Israeli youths into xenophobes, and she incited outrage by holding official meetings abroad in nonkosher restaurants.
Former political allies and opponents alike lauded her on Friday as a boundary-breaking pioneer for peace, “a moral compass,” “a special breed,” “an inspiration for all women” and a “pillar of fire.”
“It was impossible not to admire such a combative woman who fought for what she believed in and was prepared to pay the price,” said Geula Cohen, who founded a right-wing faction and frequently faced off with her in Parliament.
Yossi Sarid, who in 1996 successfully challenged Mrs. Aloni for leadership of the far-left Meretz Party, called her “a phenomenon” who feared “absolutely nothing.”
“How did we first become acquainted with civil rights? How did we first discover the occupation?” Mr. Sarid, now a political analyst, asked rhetorically Friday morning on Israel Radio. “She wanted to change the national and social agenda, and she did so, on her own, by virtue of her own capabilities, and attained great and unparalleled achievements.”
Although some sources say she was 85, her son Nimrod said she was 86 and was born in December 1927. Born Shulamit Adler in Tel Aviv to Polish immigrant parents, she fought in Israel’s War of Independence in 1948.
She started her political career with the Labor-Alignment faction, then helped create the Citizens’ Rights Movement and, later, Meretz. She was married for 36 years to Reuven Aloni, who died in 1988. She is survived by their three sons, eight grandchildren and two great-grandchildren.
Her death was a reminder of the decline of the left among Jews in Israel. Labor’s last prime minister was Ehud Barak in 2001, and Labor and Meretz combined hold 21 of Parliament’s 120 seats today. When Mrs. Aloni left elected office, they had 56.
“The pillar of fire has been extinguished,” the advocacy group Peace Now lamented in a statement. 

Friday, 31 May 2013

prince charles attacks food production methods

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/may/27/prince-charles-attack-food-production

Prince Charles attacks food production methods at German symposium

Prince of Wales calls for more local model of food production and distribution following recent public health scares

Press Association
Monday 27 May 2013


The Prince of Wales launched a wide-ranging attack on current food production methods he said have led to the horsemeat scandals and declining public health, particularly in the US.
In a speech at a conference in Germany on regional food security, he called for the creation of a more local model of food production and distribution.
Addressing the Langenburg Forum at Langenburg Castle in the state of Baden-Württemberg, he said there was not sufficient resilience in the system.
"It may appear that things are well," he said. "Big global corporations may appear to be prospering out of operating on a global monocultural scale, but, as I hope you have seen, if you drill down into what is actually happening, things are not so healthy.
"Our present approach is rapidly mining resilience out of our food system and threatening to leave it ever more vulnerable to the various external shocks that are becoming more varied, extreme and frequent."
Charles said the drive to make food cheaper for consumers and to earn companies bigger profits was sucking real value out of the food production system – value that was critical to its sustainability.
He said: "I am talking here about obvious things like the vitality of the soil and local ecosystems, the quality and availability of fresh water and so on, but also about less obvious things, like local employment and people's health. It is, as I fear you know only too well, a complex business.
"The aggressive search for cheaper food has been described as a 'drive to the bottom', which I am afraid is taking the farmers with it. They are being driven into the ground by the prices they are forced to expect for their produce and this has led to some very worrying shortcuts.
"The recent horsemeat scandals are surely just one example, revealing a disturbing situation where even the biggest retailers seem not to know where their supplies are coming from.
"It has also led to a very destructive effect on farming. We are losing farmers fast. Young people do not want to go into such an unrewarding profession.
"In the UK, I have been warning of this for some time and recently set up apprenticeship schemes to try to alleviate the problem, but the fact remains that at the moment the average age of British farmers is 58, and rising."
Pressure to produce cheap food also created social and economic problems, he said.
"In the UK, as elsewhere – but particularly, I think, in the US – the consequences of this are ever more apparent in the deteriorating state of our public health," Charles said.
"We all know that type 2 diabetes and other obesity-related conditions are rapidly on the increase.
"The public bill for dealing with these is already massive and I am told it could become completely unaffordable if we do not see a shift in emphasis. And, of course, it will be cities that carry the heaviest part of that burden."
The prince asked if he was alone in wondering how it was that those who were farming sustainably, for the long term, by operating in a way that reduced pollution and contamination of the natural environment to a minimum and maximised the health of soil, biodiverse ecosystems and humanity, were then penalised.
He said: "They find that their produce is considered too expensive and too 'niche market' to be available to everyone.
"How is it, then, that systems of farming which do precisely the opposite – with increasingly dire and damaging effects on both the terrestrial and marine environments, not to mention long-term human health – are able to sell their products in mass markets at prices that in no way reflect the immense and damaging cost to the environment and human health?
"A cost that then has to be paid for over and over again elsewhere – chiefly, in all probability, by our unfortunate children and grandchildren, whose welfare I happen to care about."
The prince added: "So, as I hope you can see, the success of a globalised system is being subsidised by many complex, long-term problems that contribute to a potentially toxic mix, making the food it produces not cheap at all.
"In fact, it is very expensive. The only reason it appears cheap in the shops is because the costs either fall somewhere else, or they are being stored up for the future."
It was necessary for food to be produced in a more sustainable and eco-friendly manner and for food systems to be less globally dependent and more locally inter-connected, he said.
The prince was invited to address the delegates by his distant relative Philipp, Prince of Hohenlohe-Langenburg, who helped organise the event.

Friday, 24 May 2013

risk of civil war in irak. lebanon, jordan and turkey

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http://www.lorientlejour.com/article/815848/-entre-tripoli-et-qousseir-un-lien-occulte.html

Entre Tripoli et Qousseir, un lien occulte 

Scarlett HADDAD
24/05/2013

Éclairage
 
Depuis plus de cinq jours, Tripoli est plongée dans une véritable guerre qui ne veut pas encore dire son nom. Au début, les médias ont voulu croire qu’il s’agissait des rixes habituelles entre deux quartiers en conflit depuis plusieurs décennies, sur fond de réaction impulsive à la bataille de Qousseir et aux succès enregistrés par l’armée syrienne, aidée par le Hezbollah. Mais cinq jours plus tard, il faut revoir cette approche. Ce qui se passe à Tripoli n’est ni une rixe banale ni une réaction impulsive, mais bien un des épisodes de la guerre sans merci qui se déroule en Syrie. Selon un notable de la ville, les seuls qui ne veulent pas la guerre sont les Tripolitains. Sinon, toutes les parties locales et régionales poussent vers les affrontements. Et la voix de la population est toujours celle qu’on entend le moins, quand les canons commencent à vomir leurs engins de mort et de destruction...

Les affrontements à Tripoli ont donc commencé avec le début de l’avancée de l’armée syrienne à Qousseir, mais il ne s’agit pas d’une réaction impulsive. C’est plutôt une riposte bien étudiée qui a plusieurs niveaux de lectures. Selon un cheikh « neutre » de Tripoli, une des premières raisons des derniers affrontements résiderait dans le fait que les groupes islamistes de la ville ont envoyé des combattants à Qousseir dont bon nombre d’entre eux sont morts. Il faudrait donc enflammer les esprits pour justifier ces morts et aiguiser les haines pour empêcher leurs familles de se poser des questions. Cela, c’est le premier niveau.

 Au deuxième niveau, les affrontements de Tripoli auraient une dimension politique interne. Ils seraient ainsi destinés à faire pression sur les tractations politiques pour tenter d’obtenir la formation d’un nouveau gouvernement en contrepartie de la prorogation du mandat du Parlement, car dans l’esprit de certaines forces influentes à Tripoli, la prorogation du mandat parlementaire serait une concession au tandem chiite Amal et le Hezbollah, et à Nabih Berry en particulier, que le 14 Mars ne veut plus réélire à la tête du Parlement s’il remporte les élections législatives. Il faut donc une contrepartie qui serait la formation d’un gouvernement sans le 8 Mars et ses alliés, que ces derniers bloquent actuellement en réclamant un gouvernement regroupant toutes les parties avec une participation proportionnelle au poids parlementaire de chacune d’elles.

Le troisième niveau de lecture est plus régional et expliquerait les combats persistants à Tripoli par une volonté arabe de punir l’armée syrienne et son allié le Hezbollah en faisant du Nord une région hors du contrôle de l’État et en particulier de l’armée libanaise. Ce serait pour cette raison que dans ce « round », les combattants ont sciemment tiré sur l’armée libanaise qui tentait de s’interposer entre les belligérants et de répondre aux sources des tirs, faisant plusieurs morts parmi les soldats. Les combattants de Bab el-Tebbaneh ont ainsi commencé par tirer en direction de Jabal Mohsen, l’enclave alaouite de la ville, pour canaliser la colère de la rue sunnite après la percée de l’armée syrienne. Bien entendu, les combattants de Jabal Mohsen ont riposté, car ils ont beau être encerclés, ils n’en sont pas moins armés et bien préparés à toutes les éventualités. L’armée a tenté d’intervenir et elle est devenue la cible des combattants. Il ne s’agit pourtant pas d’une bavure, mais d’une attaque systématique qui n’a qu’une explication : la volonté de neutraliser l’autorité de l’armée à Tripoli et peut-être dans tout le Nord. Les combattants de Jabal Mohsen ont poursuivi leur riposte en lançant des obus sur le cœur de la ville avec un message clair : vous pouvez peut-être tenter d’envahir Jabal Mohsen, mais cela vous coûtera très cher. En même temps, ils ont poussé l’armée à assumer ses responsabilités en imposant le retour au calme. Mais les tirs contre la troupe se sont poursuivis, accompagnés d’une campagne politique contre elle, menée par des figures islamistes qui ont contesté à la fois son rôle et sa mission. Au point d’ailleurs que, pour éviter d’être la cible des combattants, l’armée a donné l’ordre de retirer les soldats des rues. En dépit des déclarations officielles, la couverture politique qui lui est donnée semble insuffisante et il est clair que les responsables politiques de la ville l’assurent de leur appui, tout en laissant en douce la voie libre aux combattants, croient savoir les milieux proches du 8 Mars.

Tripoli contre Qousseir, ce serait, donc, aux yeux de certaines sources de la ville, l’équation actuellement en voie de réalisation. Il s’agirait donc de livrer la capitale du Nord et sans doute le Akkar aux groupes islamistes appuyant l’opposition syrienne, et la fameuse zone tampon que l’opposition a tenté d’obtenir depuis le déclenchement des troubles en Syrie, il y a deux ans, serait ainsi en train d’être réalisée au Liban. Pour cela, il est important de neutraliser le rôle de l’armée libanaise qui contrôle encore les frontières et possède une présence importante dans l’ensemble du Nord. Toutefois, cette fameuse zone tampon ne serait plus vraiment utile aujourd’hui, puisque, de l’autre côté de la frontière, c’est l’armée syrienne qui a repris le contrôle des régions du littoral jusqu’au rif de Qousseir, laquelle est le pendant de Ersal dans la Békaa. Sauf si l’on veut commencer à créer des troubles dans le pays alaouite qui s’étend au-delà de la frontière nord du côté du littoral. Ce qui serait un développement nouveau dans la crise syrienne et pourrait entraîner une riposte directe de l’armée syrienne au Liban.

Nous n’en sommes pas là et il est certain que les groupes islamistes de Tripoli et du Nord ne veulent pas d’un tel scénario. Dans ce cas, à quoi servent les combats de Tripoli? À exercer des pressions sur le Hezbollah pour qu’il retire ses hommes de Qousseir, affirment certaines figures islamistes, qui annoncent même que les combats à Tripoli se poursuivront aussi longtemps que dureront ceux de Qousseir. Pourtant, selon ses propres dires, le Hezbollah est engagé dans un combat stratégique.

Une drôle d’équation qui plonge chaque jour un peu plus le Liban dans le feu syrien...

related maps:

lebanon map 
lebanon religion map (Clashes 7-10 May 2008)

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http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/May-24/218162-hezbollah-opens-historic-wounds-in-qusair.ashx#axzz2U91AXSZ5


Hezbollah opens ‘historic wounds’ in Qusair 

May 24, 2013 
Hussein Dakroub, Niamh Fleming-Farrell Read


BEIRUT: Joining the fight in Syria may be part of Hezbollah’s strategy to defend the resistance, political analysts have told The Daily Star, but the party’s involvement, regardless of the outcome of the conflict there, is likely to alter Sunni-Shiite relations in Lebanon irreversibly. Analyst Qassem Kassir contends Hezbollah has a clear strategic goal, in line with its larger objectives, in joining the fight in Syria.  “The fighting in Qusair is not a gamble by Hezbollah. The party considers it is fighting a strategic battle in Qusair to defend the resistance,” Kassir, an expert on Islamist movements, told The Daily Star.  “Hezbollah has a strategic vision which says that what is happening in Syria is an international battle for Syria’s position. Hezbollah considers protecting Syria similar to protecting the resistance and the party’s arms supply route,” he continued. “Hezbollah is fighting to foil attempts to take Syria to the American-Israeli axis.”  For a fifth consecutive day Thursday, Syrian government troops backed by elite Hezbollah fighters fought rebels in the strategic Syrian town of Qusair just 10 kilometers from the Lebanese border.  Thus far, the party’s losses have been heavy, with bodies returning to hometowns in Lebanon’s north, Bekaa Valley and south.  Kamel Wazne of the Center for American Strategic Studies believes Hezbollah’s participation in Syria is part of a “calculated gamble.”  He contends that the war currently playing out in Syria between Iran and its allies and the U.S.-Israeli axis is one that would eventually have come to Hezbollah in Lebanon.  “The war that is taking place in Syria is the war that should be happening in Lebanon,” Wazne said. “They [Hezbollah] took the fight to Syria to battle it out.”  But, while in Wazne’s estimate, Hezbollah is “preventing the war from moving to Lebanon,other analysts say even though widespread civil strife is not imminent on Lebanese soil, lasting repercussions from Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah’s party’s involvement in Syria will eventually be felt.  Hilal Khashan, a political science professor at the American University of Beirut, agreed that Hezbollah’s actions in Syria have “created a lasting wedge between them and Lebanese Sunnis.”  “Irrespective of the outcome of the Syrian conflict, Sunni-Shiite relations in Lebanon will never be the same again,” he said. “Historical wounds have been opened.”  Even though sectarian clashes in the northern city of Tripoli had Thursday morning killed 16 since Sunday, Hisham Jaber, a retired Lebanese Army general and the current director of Beirut-based think tank the Middle East Center for Political Studies and Research, told The Daily Star he does not think the present divisions will develop into a military conflict.  “Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria will further fuel sectarian divisions,” Jaber admitted, explaining that “Lebanon is sharply divided between Sunnis who are against the Syrian regime and Shiites who support it.”  But, he continued, “I don’t think that this division will escalate into a military conflict.”  Jaber and other analysts contend the appetite for larger scale strife in Lebanon is curbed on a number of levels, with both local and international political actors committed to avoiding any large scale escalation at present.  Wazne pointed out that “at this moment there is agreement between [Lebanon’s] political parties to keep the security situation under great care,” while Paul Salem of the Carnegie Center, Beirut, said Lebanon’s big international patrons are keen to maintain stability here.  Jaber elaborated on this: “There is an international decision to prevent a civil war in Lebanon for now and to keep the status quo as long as the war is raging in neighboring Syria,” he said, adding that Saudi Arabia and Iran, which wield great influence in Lebanon, have no interest in the outbreak of strife in the country.  Meanwhile Talal Atrissi, a Lebanese University Lecturer with expertise on Iran and the Middle East explained to The Daily Star: “Saudi Arabia has no interest in seeing the situation in Lebanon spiral out of control or slide into Sunni-Shiite strife. A sectarian strife in Lebanon will affect the kingdom where there is a Shiite population.”  “Despite Hezbollah’s participation in the Syrian fighting, particularly in Qusair, there are no fears of an outbreak of Sunni-Shiite strife in Lebanon because there is a regional and international decision against destabilizing Lebanon,” Atrissi added.  And while analysts generally don’t deem civil war in Lebanon an immediate threat, they do express concern over the repercussions of the outcome of the Syria conflict on Lebanon.  Should the Assad regime collapse, Jaber, the retired army general, cautioned that civil war will result in Lebanon and other countries.  “If the [Assad] regime falls and the opposition and jihadist groups take control of most of the country, a civil war will erupt in Syria that would lead to the country’s partition,” Jaber said. “The civil war would spread to Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Turkey. The situation would be out of control.”  However, if Assad prevails in Syria, Khashan warned that the “the 21st century might become the golden age of Hezbollah.”  “Should Asad’s regime prevail in Syria, Hezbollah’s preponderance in Lebanon will consolidate and it would become virtually impossible to contest it,” Khashan said. “Such a development would place Hezbollah one good step forward toward the installation of an Islamic state in Lebanon.”  He added that the party had never disavowed this objective.  Meanwhile, Carnegie’s Salem wondered if the only fault line likely to be drawn by this latest Hezbollah action was between Sunnis and Shiites.  Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria may also, he speculated, have an impact within the Shiite community in Lebanon, which is now being “asked to fight a different war on a different territory, in a different situation” to that which it traditionally committed to.  So far, Salem said, the Shiite community has absorbed Hezbollah’s decision to become involved in Syria, but he questioned how long their tolerance can endure.

  A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Daily Star on May 24, 2013, on page 3

Thursday, 23 May 2013

assad emerging stronger according to bnd

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http://www.lorientlejour.com/article/815649/israel-pret-a-attaquer-en-cas-de-chute-du-regime-assad.html


Israël prêt à attaquer en cas de chute du régime Assad... 

23/05/2013

Israël est prêt à attaquer la Syrie, en cas de chute du président Bachar el-Assad, pour empêcher que des armes perfectionnées ne tombent entre les mains de groupes jihadistes ou du Hezbollah, a déclaré hier le chef de l’armée de l’air israélienne. « Dans l’hypothèse où Israël devrait affronter le Hezbollah et ses soutiens iraniens, a ajouté le général Amir Eshel, il faut s’attendre à un conflit long et douloureux. Nous devons être prêts à affronter tous les scénarios, avec seulement quelques heures de préavis. » Des avions israéliens ont attaqué des objectifs en Syrie au moins trois fois cette année pour détruire, selon des sources proches des services de renseignements, des armes antiaériennes et des missiles sol-sol destinés aux miliciens chiites du Hezbollah. Par ailleurs, un haut responsable du ministère israélien de la Défense a assuré hier que la « stabilité » sur le plateau du Golan occupé et la « force de dissuasion de l’armée israélienne » dans le secteur sont intactes malgré la multiplication récente des tirs syriens.

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 Syrian Rebels in Trouble: German Intelligence Sees Assad Regaining Hold

Matthias Gebauer 

Not even a year ago, German intelligence predicted Syrian autocrat Bashar Assad's regime would soon collapse. Now, the agency instead believes the rebels are in trouble. Government troops are set to make significant advances, it predicts.

Germany's foreign intelligence agency, the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), has fundamentally changed its view of the ongoing civil war in Syria. SPIEGEL ONLINE has learned that the BND now believes the Syrian military of autocrat Bashar Assad is more stable than it has been in a long time and is capable of undertaking successful operations against rebel units at will. BND head Gerhard Schindler informed select politicians of the agency's new assessment in a secret meeting.
It is a notable about-face. As recently as last summer, Schindler reported to government officials and parliamentarians that he felt the Assad regime would collapse early in 2013. He repeated the view in interviews with the media.
At the time, the BND pointed to the Syrian military's precarious supply situation and large numbers of desertions that included members of the officer core. German intelligence spoke of the "end phase of the regime."
Since then, however, the situation has changed dramatically, the BND believes. Schindler used graphics and maps to demonstrate that Assad's troops once again possess effective supply lines to ensure sufficient quantities of weapons and other materiel. Fuel supplies for tanks and military aircraft, which had proved troublesome, are once again available, Schindler reported. The new situation allows Assad's troops to combat spontaneous rebel attacks and even retake positions that were previously lost. The BND does not believe that Assad's military is strong enough to defeat the rebels, but it can do enough to improve its position in the current stalemate.

Severing Rebel Supply Lines

The assessment appears to be consistent with recent reports from Syria, where government troops have been able to regain the upper hand in the region stretching from Damascus to Homs, including coastal areas near Homs. Furthermore, fighters loyal to Assad have expelled rebel fighters from several districts on the edge of Damascus and cut off their supply lines to the south. Currently, the regime is in the process of severing rebel supply lines to the west.
Meanwhile, the BND believes that rebel forces, which include several groups of Islamist fighters with ties to al-Qaida, are facing extreme difficulties. Schindler reported that different rebel groups are fighting with each other to attain supremacy in individual regions. Furthermore, regime troops have managed to cut supply lines for weapons and evacuation routes for wounded fighters. Each new battle weakens the militias further, the BND chief said.
Should the conflict continue as it has in recent weeks, says Schindler, government troops could retake the entire southern half of the country by the end of 2013. That would leave only the north for insurgent fighters, where Kurdish rebels have tighten control over their areas.
 
Lowering Expectations
 
Schindler's report on the state of the rebel groups allows little room for hope that serious talks between the insurgents and the Assad regime will take place soon. The BND says there is no functional chain of command between opposition leaders abroad and the militias inside of Syria. The fighters on the ground simply don't recognize the political leadership, says the BND.
The United Nations is currently doing all it can to encourage both sides to engage in peace talks in Geneva, though no date has been set. German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle is once again travelling to the Middle East on Wednesday to plan for such negotiations.
At a meeting of the "Friends of Syria" in the Jordanian capital of Amman, Westerwelle is set to meet with US Secretary of State John Kerry among others. But over the weekend, he sought to lower expectations, saying that it isn't clear yet whether the Assad regime is even prepared to engage in talks.

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Assad preparing missile strike against Tel Aviv in case attacked again 

The Syrian army is deploying advanced surface-to-surface missiles aiming at Israel in the aftermath of the alleged Israeli strikes, The Sunday Times reports. 

May.19, 2013

Syria is making preparations to strike Tel Aviv in case Israel launches another attack on its territory, The Sunday Times reported on Sunday.
The Syrian army has begun deploying advanced surface-to-surface missiles, the report said, adding that it has received orders to strike central Israel in case additional attacks against Syria are carried out.

The Sunday Times said that the information was obtained by reconnaissance satellites that were tracking the Syrian forces. According to the report, Syria was deploying advanced Tishreen missiles which are capable of carrying a half-ton warhead.
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On Wednesday, The New York Times quoted a senior Israeli official warning of further attacks against Syria in case Bashar Assad decides to take action against Israel. The official also said Israel is determined to prevent any transfer of advanced weapons to Hezbollah.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said that Syria would supply his organization with 'game-changing weapons' in response to recent air raids near Damascus attributed to Israel. Another recent report claimed that Iran convinced Assad to allow Hezbollah to open a front against Israel in the Golan Heights, and also agreed to supply and assist any group that wishes to fight Israel.